Super Bowl Betting

Super Bowl LII Odds Update: Patriots Lead at the Half

Four weeks ago, the New England Patriots looked like they were in trouble. The defending champs were still the top favorites on the Super Bowl LII odds list, but after starting the 2017 campaign at 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, the Patriots had fallen off from +325 to +500. What a difference a month makes; New England has rebounded to +350 at press time, thanks to four straight wins at 3-1 ATS.

There’s still plenty to be concerned about with New England’s defense, but quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense are humming along quite nicely. They’re doing so well, they traded promising backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers before Tuesday’s deadline, getting a 2018 second-round draft pick in return. Brady is the only quarterback left on the roster, but the Pats are expected to reunite with Brian Hoyer now that the Niners have released their incumbent starter.
 

Eagles Supplant Packers at No. 2

The biggest news over the past four weeks involves another former MVP quarterback, but he won’t suit up again in 2017. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 and was put on injured reserve after undergoing surgery. The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) have lost back-to-back games straight up and against the spread with Brett Hundley at the controls, and they’ve fallen from +750 all the way to +4000 on the Super Bowl 52 betting board.

Rodgers’ injury leaves a giant hole on the NFL futures market, and the Philadelphia Eagles (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have jumped right in, moving from +2200 dark horses to +600 second favorites after rattling off four consecutive wins straight up and against the spread. The Eagles have gotten Pro Bowl-quality play from sophomore quarterback Carson Wentz, along with some of the best special teams in the league, and while their defense has been so-so at best, it’s been considerably better than New England’s. Will they end up meeting in Minneapolis come February?
 

Offensive Lines in the Spotlight

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) might have something to say about it. They’ve moved from +800 to +700 on the Super Bowl odds list, riding yet another outstanding season from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have only allowed Big Ben to get sacked 10 times this year, despite some injuries on the offensive line, but they’ve also had to deal with disgruntled wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He was still with Pittsburgh after Tuesday’s trade deadline.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 SU and ATS) had their chance to get ahead of New England on the Super Bowl futures market, but after five straight wins, they fell back to the pack with a pair of losses straight up and against the spread. The return of center Mitch Morse helped Kansas City get the win last Monday night over the Denver Broncos; guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) should also be in action soon, leaving the Chiefs as viable +750 Super Bowl contenders.

Further illustrating the importance of quarterback protection, the Seattle Seahawks (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) finally took a big step towards improving their offensive line in front of quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks scooped up Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown from the Houston Texans in exchange for cornerback Jeremy Lane and a pair of draft picks (Lane failed his physical, so he was replaced by a fifth-rounder). Seattle also signed free-agent defensive end Dwight Freeney to a one-year deal last week. With these additions, the ‘Hawks are once again making a legitimate Super Bowl run at +1000.

 

Bridgewater Ready for Vikings?

After what looked like a wide-open Super Bowl race last month, there might not be any other true contenders left. The Minnesota Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are on the cusp at +1400, but their success in 2017 has depended on the performance of an unlikely hero: quarterback Case Keenum. He’s filled in more than admirably for the injured Sam Bradford, but will the Vikings hand the ball to Teddy Bridgewater when he returns to active duty following the bye week?

It’s a dog’s breakfast after the Vikings. The defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) are struggling at +1800, but at least they still have one of the best rushing attacks in football. We might not be able to say the same for the Dallas Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) at +1800, depending on whether running back Ezekiel Elliott will finally serve his six-game suspension. If the NFLPA can somehow keep Eliott on the field, the Cowboys might have some value as a potential NFC Wild Card team. If not, expect to see their Super Bowl odds take a tumble.


*Odds as of November 1, 2017